چهارشنبه

boss
National Post : Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the grim ascetic who deposed Iran's 2,500-year-old monarchy and transformed the Islamic world, came to power through massive street protests and when he died, 20 years ago this week, was mourned by millions.
Weeping women, veiled in black prayer chadors, streamed through Tehran, beating their breasts, and wailing: "We have been orphaned. Our father is dead."
Two million men, who spent hours in the heat and dust of Mosalla Square, pounding their heads in grief and clawing their faces till their cheeks bled, rushed the Ayatollah's grave as he was laid to rest and tore his funeral shroud to shreds in a bid for relics.
Soldiers had to fire in the air to restore order and drive the mourners back, as eight people were crushed to death and more than 11,000 injured.
It seemed to foreshadow the type of disaster everyone expected would follow. At the very least, experts predicted, Iran would suffer a long, tumultuous power struggle as the country's combative elites grappled with finding a successor to Ayatollah Khomeini.
Civil war, unrest, religious persecution and violent reaction were all considered possible. Iran seemed doomed to be weak and chaotic.
But, then, as now, Western analysts struggled to understand the inner workings of Iran's leadership. Within hours of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, the Assembly of Experts, a conservative committee of leading Islamic theologians, appointed Iran's then-president Ali Khamenei the country's new leader.
The tall, lean, then-49-year-old cleric with oversized glasses and bushy white beard was immediately regarded as a temporary stand-in. Dour and distant, he lacked Ayatollah Khomeini's charisma and, as a mid-level mullah, didn't even qualify to become Iran's new spiritual leader.
Iran's constitution had to be altered to enable him to take office and, since he only carried the religious title of Hojatolislam, (a rank below Ayatollah) the country's religious leaders had to be pressured to promote him to Ayatollah when his appointment as God's representative on Earth was announced.
More a revolutionary bureaucrat than a religious scholar, Ayatollah Khamenei seemed an unlikely Supreme Leader. But then, he has been underestimated and misunderstood for nearly three decades.
His lack of theological erudition and popular appeal has forced him to stand in the shadows while becoming a master at manipulating Iran's constellation of competing power centres. And he is expert at manoeuvering between parliament, the presidency, the judiciary, Revolutionary Guards, military, intelligence services, the clerical elite, Friday prayer leaders and the news media.
Even now, he seems overshadowed by Iran's sabre-rattling, holocaust-denying President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But while the disputatious Mr. Ahmadinejad may be the public face of Iranian politics, it is the taciturn Ayatollah Khamenei who is definitely the boss.
Under Iran's revolutionary constitution, Ayatollah Khamenei wields more power than the President and controls the national police and security agencies. He appoints the head of the military, the top Revolutionary Guards and the judiciary and controls national television and radio and hundreds of revolutionary charitable foundations that manage much of Iran's economy.
As Supreme Leader, he has the authority to override virtually every other member of government; can veto legislation, dismiss a sitting president and invalidate election results.
Ayatollah Khamenei has a staff of more than 600 special advisors in fields as varied as economics, culture, the media and the military. But he draws further strength from his power to appoint religious representatives in all state ministries and institutions, giving him another 2,000 crucial allies in government.
The way Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, sees it, Ayatollah Khamenei remains in the ideological vanguard of the Iranian revolution.
"The geographic heart of the Islamic world is in Mecca and Medina," he says. "But, the political heart of the Islamic world is the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Supreme Leader is the flag-bearer of the front of the Islamic Awakening."
"There is perhaps no leader in the world more important to current world affairs, but less known and understood than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei," says Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian expert with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"He's not only the most powerful man in Iran, but probably the most influential man in the entire Middle East" he adds.
Deeply religious, ideologically rigid and staunchly anti-American, Ayatollah Khamenei heads a loose coalition of conservative clerics and security officials who have never lost their appetite for power or the euphoria of the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
The archetype of the hardline mullahs who came to dominate the Iranian government under Ayatollah Khomeini, he was a strong supporter of the revolutionary militants who seized the U.S. embassy in Teheran in 1979.
He once declared "exporting the revolution is like glitter of the sun, whose rays brighten the entire world."
As president, he presided over the war with Iraq and as Supreme Leader he has presided over a transformation of Iranian foreign policy, moving from bitter isolation to being a regional superpower.
It was under Ayatollah Khamenei that Iran began its patronage of Palestinian radicals in Hamas, expanded support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and enhanced links with Iraq's militant Shiites. At the same time, Iran has pressed ahead with its nuclear program.
Now, Iran is essential to U.S. success in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon.
Though Khamenei is sometimes dismissed as weak and indecisive, Mr. Sadjadpour notes, "His rhetoric depicts a resolute leader with a remarkably consistent and coherent -- though highly cynical and conspiratorial-- world view."
He argues that any successful approach toward Iran must take into account Ayatollah Khamenei's pivotal role in Iran's politics and his deeply held suspicions of the United States.
"Trying to engage an Iran with Khamenei at the helm will no doubt be trying, require a great deal of nuance and patience, and offer no guaranteed chance of success," he says.
"But an approach toward Iran that aims to ignore, bypass or undermine Khamenei is guaranteed to fail."

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